BEL – Triangle Breakout Imminent?

Earlier today, BEL attempted a worthwhile attempt to breakout from the symmetrical triangle it is forming since the beginning of 2011. It went as high as 5.95, before settling and closing at 5.80. Still, a breakthrough could be made on tomorrow's trading session. And if a price breakout does indeed happen, BEL could be targeting a nice 9.00 digit.

A clear cut above the 6.00-6.10 levels would signal the breakout from the symmetrical triangle, especially if accompanied with significant volume. As it is, a good entry point is going to be just above the 6.00-6.10 levels, or one could wait for the pull-back after the immediate breakout. Which is likely, since after the 6.10 levels, the next resistance is at the 6.50 level.

In the event of a breakout, and one does make a position with BEL, stops could be placed just below 6.00, as this would mean that breakout is false, and that the consolidation still is not over. Still, as shown from the weekly chart posted above, BEL's uptrend still is going strong, just as directional bias is still pointing upwards.

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Mining Stocks Very Bullish, as PX, LC, MA, NIKL Creates New Highs

PX has now broken out from what appears to be a pennant formation at 18.00, and now looks on course to retest the 20.00 key resistance level. Also, rumor has it that there will be a special block sale to be transacted at 21.60, so if there is indeed truth to this, they need to push the price of PX to within 5% of 21.60, before the special block sale can be done.

If you don't already have PX, a nice entry point should be any price near 18.00. However, if the train continues to steam ahead, don't try to chase the train. Trading stop for PX should be below 17.30.

LC and MA have both registered new highs, with LC closing at 0.69, and MA at 0.041. Sky seems to be the limit for these two issues, as little resistance are being offered at these new highs. However, the same cannot be said for LCB, which according to the rumor mill, is about to be declassified, and to be merged with LCB, which could explain its 2.6% drop and close at 0.75.

NIKL has alro broken out from a rounding bottom area pattern resistance of 23.00, and also establiehed a new all time high of 23.70, and close at 23.55. When one measures the breadth of the area pattern, price target for NIKL looks to be at 27.00, within a three-month time frame.

This is a steady stock, so don't rush to get in if you were unable to buy on breakout. Wait for a price pull back, and try to get in as near as 23.00, with 22.00 the stop limit for this trade.

However, as can be seen on the weekly chart of the PSE's Mining and Oil index, this sector continues with its meteoric rise since early 2009 as rising commodities prices, particularly gold and oil, makes for a very bullish market for all the miners and oilers out there.

However, this sector is about to reach the resistance line of the bullish trend channel, so some caution should be in one's thought, if ever one's going long in this sector.

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MBT, BDO Breaks Out, as Banking Issues Lead the Way

Banking in general performed very well on today's trading session, with MBT and BDO breaking out from their immediate price resistances. Overall, market was up, and looking on the charts, it seems that MBT and BDO might still have some legs in continuing the recent bullish move of the local market.

MBT, after consolidating between 66.00 and 69.00 for the majority of April, finally managed to slip past the 69.00 immediate resistance level to close at 70.50, with a high of 71.25. With the needed volume spike not present in this move, target price for MBT in the meantime is at 75.00. Just buy back MBT again, if price action allows it to move higher than 75.00, and accompanied with volume. Stop limits on the other hand, could be placed just below 67.00 for safety purposes.

For BDO, it seems to have broken out from a cup and handle area pattern resistance at 54.00. But as with MBT, BDO's bullish move today was not supported by strong volume, making the confidence level for this trade not that high. Based on the area pattern, we could see this issue to try and retest the 60.00 resistance level, before attempting to test the recent high of 64.00.

PNB also made a strong move, finishing the day at 65.90, up by 5.4%, and could well be on its way to test the 68.60 recent high. Any breach of this high could allow PNB to attem once again to take the 74.00 key price barrier. But for the meantime, wait and see if PNB can manage to find a way above 68.60.

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Is 20 Pesos Just a Dream for PX? Or a Reality?

Afer successfully clearing the immediate 16.30 resistance to close at an impressive 16.48, PX looks strong to try and retest the next immediate resistance at 17.00, which could possible lead to, the mighty 20 pesos resistance level.

With the needed volume confirmation is present earlier today, and the MACD level is trudging along very well, the prospects for PX reaching 20 at least looks good, especially once price action allows it to break past the immediate 17.00 level.

Those late to the party might want to try and get in as near as possible to the 16.30 level, or wait for the break of the 17.00 level. Inversely, stops could be placed just below 16.00, in order to cur any losses, or lock in any profits already made.

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EDC – A Pullback Buy?

EDC has pulled back towards the 6.55 breakout point/support level in recent days, following its breakout move last April 7, establishing highs at the 6.8 levels. Although price actions has weakened, EDC has presented a buying opportunity to us at the 6.55 levels.

At this price, a tight cut limit can be set at 6.40, so risk in this particular issue is limited, while profit potential is good, and basically limitless once EDC breaks the 5.80 barrier, and enter uncharted territories and establish new all-time highs.

Another possible twist is that one can buy upon the break of the 5.80 with good volume, or average up if one already managed to get shares near the 6.55 support levels. Buy near support, buy on breakout, or buy near support add position on breakout, its up to you to decide.

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Uncharted Territory for DMC

Earlier today, DMC has finally confirmed clearing the 41.00 all-time resistance level, and looks poised to continue thrusting upwards, while establishing new all-time records along the way. 

Now, it might be hard to identify the next resistance level as DMC is now on uncharted territories, it might be a safe bet to try to sell just before the next psychological resistance at 50.00.

A safe stop level should be at the 40.00 level, any price action below this level should be your signal to sell DMC.

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LND – Bullish Swing Continues, Breaks Out From Pennant Formation and New 2.5 Year High

After a major news event for LND, with AGI becoming a major investor, LND has resumed its bullish momentum, after consolidating between 1.51 and 1.27 during the last two weeks. Breaking out from the 1.51 resistance of what appears to be a pennant continuation pattern, LND seeks to target the 2.10 target, when measuring the pole of the pennant.

Last December 9, 2010, LND broke free from a symmetrical triangle formation, before breaking out from what apparently is a two-year cup and handle formation at 0.87. And now, LND also has surpassed the last peak established at 1.48 in 2007, signifying that most of the ipits all these times are now gone, or are now unwilling to sell.

Stops should be placed just below the 1.38 levels. Enjoy the ride!

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SMB – Breakout From Ascending Triangle Imminent?

SMB looks to be poising for another bullish runup, as it tries to take out the key 32.00 ascending triangle resistance. After consolidating within a volatile range of 20 and 32 for at least one month, SMB has finally made a bullish move to break free from this consolidation.

With the PSEi down by at least 2%, SMB managed to gain an impressive 8.4%, to close at 31.45, after retesting the 32.00 key resistance line. It would be interesting to know if SMB will breakout from the triangle, and continue consolidating within the range. If SMB manages to breakout from this level, technical target is at 46.00 level, within a one-month holding period.

As always, with every trades, always put stops. And in this case, the stop level should be placed below the 28.00 support level.

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MER – Breakout From Inverted Head and Shoulders

On the penultimate trading day of the year 2010, many stock issues have been going up, with MER among the best performer, seemingly breaking out from a bullish inverted head and shoulders neckline of 207. MER also closed at its high of 221, up by 7.3%.

After establishing lows of 186 and 188 for the shoulders, and going as low as 170 for the head, MER's price action on this morning trading session has finally allowed it break free from the key resistance line of 207. The two-month price target for MER, according to the area pattern, is at the 245 levels.

Stops could be placed below the 195 support area.

With this, the next immediate price target for MER is around the 225 area, before attempting to take out the more significant resistance line at around the 236 area. If MER also manages to break this resistance in the future, are we seeing a retest of the 300 price level? We shall see.

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Day of Breakouts – LC from Inverted Head and Shoulders, BEL from 4.00, LND from 0.87

Today seems to be a good day for these two stocks, as LC finally broke free from the neckline of the bullish inverted head and shoulders pattern at 0.395, while BEL smashing through the critical and psychological resistance level at 4.00, and LND establishing a new two-year high to close at 0.91.

After consolidating between a low of 0.32, and a high of 0.395 and in the process form an inverted head and shoulders pattern, with 0.395 serving as the neckline, LC has finally broken free from this bullish area pattern, confirming the reversal from the downtrend starting from the high of 0.66 last September.

And with this move, price target for LC is pegged at 0.47 within 3 months. Sell stop should be placed just below the 0.375 level, in case our expected price action fails to materialize.

BEL has also performed very strong earlier, closing at 4.30, after finally taking out the 4.00 resistance level, and holding ground above it. This signifies the resumption of its bullish 45 degree trend line since early November.

As expected and noted in my blog post yesterday, LND gapped up to open at 0.91, filling the gap at 0.87, and to finish strong to close at 0.91, with some bid orders left unmatched. From this point on, LND should trudge steadily higher, towards the 1.10 technical target. Sell stops can now be moved higher to just below the 0.87 level.

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Breakout Watch – LND @ 0.87, PX @ 15.00

LND

With a strong move by LND to close at 0.87 earlier today, Fil-Estate Land now looks poised to take out the key resistance level at 0.87, which it has failed to breach since the September 16, 2010. Closing at its day high, and finishing the runoff period with heavy volume on the bid side, barring any major geo-political events, this looks certain to gap up on tomorrow's trading.

After breaking out from the symmetrical triangle last December 9, price has since retraced the previous triangle resistance line, before finally making the strong move today. The three-month technical target at 1.10 remains intact.

PX

After breaking out last December 6, 2010 from a flag formation, or descending triangle formation, PX was unable to breach the 15.00 level quite convincingly, and has since just hovered below this level. Earlier today, PX attempted once again in vain, to take the 15.00 level for good. While it did manage to move higher at 15.04, price action was again repulsed at this level, sending PX lower to close at 14.84.

If PX does indeed manage to breach, and hold the 15.00 level, immediate target for PX will be at 16.00, 17.00, and the grand daddy of all resistances for PX, the 20.00 barrier. However, if PX failed to take out 15.00, then PX may have to retest the 13.00 support level.

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San Miguel Party Resumes

On a lethargic market session earlier today, San Miguel-related stocks once again took center stage, as SMC, PCOR, and SMB all posted significant gains with 5.5%, 6.1%, and 2.8% respectively.

SMC finally resumed its bullish momentum, after dipping near its breakout point at 125.00, proving that conservative breakout traders, those that buys when price dips near the breakout point chronicled on this post, can also have fun and join the ride.

PCOR on the other hand, looks to have broken out from what appears to be a pennant formation, with a potential price target of 18.50, based on the pole established during the last part of November. PCOR also looks to finally overcome the 13.00 level, which has eluded its price action last December 1. Stops could be placed around the 11.00 levels, in the event that our expected price action failed to materialize.

Meanwhile, SMB continues to trade very volatile, but still managed to close at 29.50, possibly moving sympathetically with SMC and PCOR.

Tomorrow, lets find out if San Miguel can outdo its bullish party hosted during the latter part of November.

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LND – Breakout From Symmetrical Triangle

Fil-Estate Land was one of the few bright spots during the local stock market session earlier today, breaking out from the symmetrical triangle that it has been consolidating inside since mid-September, to close at 0.81.

After breaking out from the symmetrical triangle, which was accompanied by very strong volume, LND might first retest the resistance at 0.87, which was the high last September 16, before moving higher on the back of a strong bullish momentum.

Measuring the triangle, LND now has a technical target between 1.10 to 1.15, which should be achievable within a span of 3 months. It should first, however, move above the immediate resistance at 0.87.

Stop-loss orders could be placed just below the 0.70 levels, in the event that this move turns out to be a flop.  

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SMC - Breakout From Flag Formation, Confirmed

San Miguel has finally broken out from the 125.00, flag formation resistance, as mentioned in my blog entry just yesterday:

SMC – Another Flag Formation Waiting to Breakout?

Congratulations to those who have bough upon breakout, as technical target for this move should take SMC towards the 150.00 level. To those that have missed out on the breakout, you can wait for the pullback just above the 125.00 level, IF there will be a pullback hehe. Otherwise, just try to buy on a price you're comfortable with, as it is not healthy to go on chasing prices.

Now what to expect for SMC tomorrow? Given that SMC finished very strong on today's session, and on the day high, tendency is that SMC will probably open strong also tomorrow, to fill in pent up demand from today's session. This is possible, as long as the US and European markets doesn't do anything crazy, or the Kim Jong Il finally going mad against South Korea.

Still, as with any trades, always have a proper trading plan. If price retreats, and falls below 115.00, which is the flag formation support level, then one should cut this stock, as this would signal a failed technical move. 

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SMC – Another Flag Formation Waiting to Breakout?

Following PX's breakout last Monday from a flag formation, or descending triangle whatever you look at it, San Miguel Corporation is now also trying to breakout from a flag of its own.

After establishing the pole last November 18 and 19, SMC has consolidated between 115.00, and the elusive 125.00 resistance level. Now if SMC will finally manage to breach this level convincingly within the next few sessions, we will be looking at a price target near the 150.00 level, which would present a strong psychological resistance.

To trade SMC, one should wait for the successful assault against the 125.00 level, accompanied with strong volume before buying this stock. Don't preempt any breakouts, and set your stop-loss level below the 115.00 flag support level. With this in place, you should be fine.

While MACD shows that a bearish crossover with the signal line is imminent, chart-wise, SMC still looks good. And coupled with rumors circulating that San Miguel is going to offer secondary shares to the market, with price ranging between 150 to 200 pesos, there is a strong motivation for the jockeys to push SMC towards the 150 levels. Provided of course, that this is true hehe.

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PX – Poising For a Flag Formation Breakout?

Looking at the PX price chart, price action for Philex Mining appears to be forming a flag formation, and at the moment, looks set to finally break this consolidation period, and resume its bullish push starting from latter part of August 2010.

After twice bouncing from the 12.90 support level, PX has managed to retest the flag formation resistance level, and if it succeed in breaching this level, the upward price momentum for this move could take PX to as as high as the 19.25 area. Looking back since late September, volume for PX has been consistently been decreasing in value, which could signal a significant price move may be imminent.

Breakout from 14.25 should be the trigger price, and any move below the 12.90 level should also be the signal to cut any losses from this stock. Again, never preempt any breakout in price, and only buy if the breakout is supported with convincing volume.

However, PX also appears to be forming a descending triangle, which incidentally, a break below the 12.90 level will also signal the breakdown from the bearish descending triangle formation. In closing, don't touch PX, unless a convincing breakout has occurred.

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DMC – Breakdown From Head and Shoulder Pattern

DMCI finally fell from the head and shoulder neckline support at 33.00, to close lower at 32.05. With this price move, DMC looks set to be in a bearish bias for the next two months, and will probably test the support level at 25.75, which is also the head and shoulder breakdown price target.

After establishing the three peaks to form the head and shoulder pattern, and failing to sustain its steep bullish run from September, price has reached an exhaustion point, and may now be correcting, at least for the meantime. Looking at the weekly chart, the divergence from the uptrend line established from February this year has been too much already, and the recent breakdown may bring it closer to the trend line.

Once DMC has come back to the February 2010 trend line, and respected the trend support, then DMC can turn bullish again. However if not, then expect a renewed selling pressure from the market.

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Reversal of Fortunes for FOOD?

Alliance Select Foods International, or FOOD, is poising for a reversal from its bearish trend, as it tests the 1.50 key resistance level, which it has been trying to breach since the middle of October. Since December 2009, FOOD has been trending lower, coming from the 2.16 level, and this time, FOOD has an opportunity to break free from this bearish bias.

Looking at the price chart, FOOD has somewhat managed to squeak past this bearish trend line, to encounter the 1.50 key resistance line. Now, if price manage to break out from this level, FOOD will encounter 1.60 as its next resistance, and 1.70 as the next.

Buy on breakout with convincing volume, and don’t preempt any breakouts, as FOOD can still respect the 1.50 resistance level, and consolidate further.

CMT – Ascending Triangle Breakout

Southeast Asian Cement Corporation (CMT) finally managed to breakout from the 2.06 ascending triangle resistance line, to close strongly at 2.12. As you can see on the chart below, CMT’s bullish momentum is likely to take price towards the 2.55 price area within a three month window, so traders that have missed this opportunity still has a chance to join this price move.

As with any trades, you must always have a trading plan in the event this trade doesn’t perform as expected. In this case, cut loss if price falls below the breakout point of 2.06. But at this point, outlook for CMT is looking good, with the MACD making a piercing upward cross on the signal line, indicating that recent price action for CMT is still bullish.

Petron Corporation (PCOR) – Breakout From Symmetrical Triangle

After months of stagnation between 7.30 and 6.20, PCOR finally broke out from the symmetrical triangle resistance at 7.35, and finish higher at 8.61. While the price target for the symmetrical triangle seems to have been reached already at 8.80, outlook for Petron still looks good, as it may consolidate and establish a flag formation, before going further up.

Immediate support for PCOR is at 7.90, which was the previous high from September 27, 2010, and any break below this level should be a signal to sell this stock, either to rake in profits or to cut any losses. Still, one can’t stop thinking that PCOR might have moved, because of the strong move of its affiliated companies, like SMB and SMC. News on these moves are of course brewing.